As climate variability intensifies and soil health rises up the agricultural agenda, cultivation decisions are under growing scrutiny. This article brings together findings from a 10‑year arable field experiment at the Royal Agricultural University Farms in Gloucestershire, comparing plough‑based tillage (PT), minimum tillage (MT), and direct drilling (DD). By examining both crop yield stability under changing weather conditions and the long‑term responses of soil fauna and biological functioning, the work exposes a central tension in modern arable systems: the pursuit of short‑term yield reliability versus the slow accumulation of soil resilience. Together, the results offer rare, long‑term insight into how today’s cultivation choices shape both above‑ and below‑ground performance.
The study found that climatic variability, particularly temperature, plays a dominant role in driving inter‑annual yield variability, but that cultivation system mediates how crops respond to these weather conditions. Over the decade, plough‑based tillage generally provided the greatest yield stability across crops and seasons. However, this stability came at the cost of reduced soil biological indicators, as shown in the second paper. While DD and MT systems often produced lower yields during the first four years after establishment, particularly for spring wheat, yield performance under reduced tillage improved over time. After this transition period, DD frequently achieved yields comparable to or exceeding plough‑based systems, especially in warmer and drier years, reflecting improved soil water use efficiency.
Maximum seasonal temperatures (TMax) showed a significant upward trend over the study period, while rainfall did not. Yield responses were more closely linked to temperature variables measured at specific crop growth stages than to seasonal averages. Spring wheat was notably more sensitive than winter crops to climatic variation, particularly mean seasonal temperature. When seasonal mean temperatures were below 12.3 °C, spring wheat yields were consistently lower under DD compared to MT and PT. Conversely, under warmer conditions, reduced tillage systems performed more competitively, suggesting greater climatic sensitivity but also adaptive potential. For winter wheat, higher maximum temperatures in February (above 9.9 °C) were associated with significantly improved yields across all cultivation systems, likely through enhanced early crop development.