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16. Unpacking the growth of global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions

Published on January 21st, 2026 | Last updated on January 22nd, 2026

Over 1961 to 2021, we find that Total Factor Productivity growth—which captures the sector’s ability to produce more output per unit of measured input—has consistently remained one of the main sources of GHG emission reduction within farms.

Agriculture, forestry, and other land use contribute about a fifth of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Mitigation efforts have emphasized “decoupling” that sustains production while lowering emissions per unit of output. However, the underlying decoupling mechanisms have not been fully characterized.

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